Eli Lilly Crushes Q2 Estimates on Surging GLP-1 Sales

What happened

Eli Lilly reported second-quarter revenue of $23 billion, a 48% increase from the prior year, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $20.7 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $8.38, well above the expected $6.01. The results were powered by the company's GLP-1 portfolio: Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) generated $9.9 billion in sales, up 91% year-over-year, while Zepbound (for weight loss) brought in $4.9 billion, up 46%. Together, these two drugs accounted for 65% of Lilly's total sales. The newly launched oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo recorded $98 million in its first full quarter, slightly below expectations but showing rapid prescription growth. Beyond GLP-1s, Lilly saw strong performance across its immunology, oncology, and neuroscience portfolios, with drugs like Ebglyss (eczema) more than doubling sales and Kisunla (Alzheimer's) tripling year-over-year. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $85-87 billion from $82-85 billion and announced an expanded partnership with CVS Health to improve patient access to Zepbound and Foundayo.

Why it matters

Lilly's dominant position in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 market continues to drive exceptional growth, with the company capturing 60-70% of GLP-1 prescriptions in the U.S. The results demonstrate that Lilly is not only maintaining its lead over rival Novo Nordisk but widening it, particularly in the critical U.S. market. The 48% revenue growth and raised guidance signal strong momentum heading into the second half of the year. Importantly, the growth is being driven primarily by volume rather than price increases-volume surged 60% over the past two quarters even as Lilly implemented low- to mid-teens price reductions to expand access. This suggests sustainable demand rather than price-driven revenue. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which launched July 1 and provides coverage for 20 million Americans at $50 per month out-of-pocket, represents a 35% increase in GLP-1 coverage and could drive significant prescription growth in coming quarters. The CVS partnership further removes barriers by offering $29 telehealth visits and transparent pricing through 9,000 pharmacies. With roughly one in eight Americans currently on a branded GLP-1 and only one in 50 people outside the U.S., the addressable market remains vast.

Bigger picture

The GLP-1 market continues to expand rapidly, growing 31% year-over-year in the U.S. and 74% internationally. Lilly's results underscore the shift from injectable to oral formulations, though CEO David Ricks noted that oral launches have not cannibalized Zepbound sales-instead, new patient starts on Zepbound actually accelerated during the oral drug launches, suggesting market expansion rather than substitution. The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill (launched in January) generating approximately $500 million in Q2 sales, though Novo's recent results disappointed investors and sent its stock down 6%. Meanwhile, Lilly is advancing its pipeline with retatrutide, a next-generation injectable targeting three hormones (GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon) that has shown weight loss of up to 28% at the highest dose. Lilly plans to submit retatrutide for FDA approval in Q1 2027. The company is also seeking label expansion for orforglipron (Foundayo's active ingredient) in type 2 diabetes, citing superiority over Novo's pill in head-to-head trials. Beyond obesity and diabetes, Lilly's diversified portfolio is showing strength, with its immunology, oncology, and neuroscience segments growing 121% year-over-year, albeit from a smaller base.

What to watch

Key developments to monitor include Foundayo's international rollout (now approved in Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, with regulatory reviews underway in over 40 countries) and prescription growth as physician awareness and formulary access expand. The impact of the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge on third-quarter sales will be an important indicator of demand elasticity. Investors should track Lilly's progress toward retatrutide's Q1 2027 regulatory submission and any updates on the FDA approval timeline for orforglipron's expanded diabetes indication. Capacity expansion remains critical-Lilly has been investing heavily in manufacturing to meet surging demand. Finally, watch for updates on Lilly's recent acquisitions, including the $3.3 billion purchase of cell-therapy company Kelonia Therapeutics and $2.8 billion acquisition of psychedelics firm AtaiBeckley, as the company diversifies its therapeutic pipeline beyond metabolic disease.